利率平价关系不稳定条件下短期资本流动机制的运行

现代利率平价理论分无偏差预测理论与有偏差预测理论,两者对非抵补利率平价是否成立的观点截然相反。大量实证研究更多地表明在当今各种经济基本面、政策面及其不确定性预期等因素的影响下,利率平价关系日益呈现出不稳定性,在短期资本套利和套汇机制作用下,当期和未来短期资本流动方向均有不同变化。近几年来,我国短期资本流动发生较大波动,当前存在着短期资本重新转为大量流入的动向,政府需加强短期资本流动监控,以防遭受冲击。

The Operation of Short-term Capital Flow System under Unstable Interest Parity Condition

The modern interest parity theories are classified as uncovered interest parity and covered interest parity with opposite opinions as to whether non-covered interest rate parity exists.A large volume of empirical studies shows more evidence of the volatility of interest parity,under the influence of economic fundamental factors,policy factors and its prediction uncertainty.Driven by short-term capital arbitrage and foreign exchange speculations,different changes have occurred upon current and future capital...