中国现代金融体系的结构、影响及前景

在经济快速增长的背景下,中国已逐步形成一个以中央银行为核心、商业银行为主体,各种银行和非银行金融机构分工协作的现代国家金融体系。运用计量分析方法和典型相关分析,研究中国现代金融体系的社会融资结构、证券市场结构以及影子银行结构,测度国家现代金融体系对实体经济各行业的影响程度。研究表明:金融机构贷款与债券市场对相关行业的促进具有一定协同作用,股票市场对第一、二产业的发展影响较小,金融业对第三产业的促进作用最大。根据目前金融体系的结构、影响,可以预见未来中国现代金融体系的发展前景将主要体现在市场化、网络化以及国际化三个方面。

Structure, Impacts and Prospects of Chinese Modern Financial System

Under the condition of rapid economic growth, China has gradually formed a modern nation's financial system with central bank as the core, commercial bank as main body and the collaboration of various banks and non-bank financial institutions. This paper uses the econometric analysis and canonical correlation analysis to study the structure of social financing, the securities market and the shadow banking in Chinese modern financial system and measure the impact of the modern financial system on the real economy sectors. Research shows that there is a certain synergy between the loans of financial institutions and the bond market for the promotion of related industries; the stock market has less effect on the development of the first and second industry; the financial industry contributes most to the promotion of the tertiary industry. According to the current structure and impact of the financial system, the future prospects of Chinese modern financial system's development will mainly focus on the marketization, networking and internationalization.