The U.S. Carpet Industry: History,Industry Dynamics,and a Simple Model for Short-Term Forecasting

This article presents a simple model that can be used to assess the current situation of the carpet industry and develop a short-term outlook for it. Using quarterly data over the time period 1999:Q1–2016:Q2, we build a regression model of U.S. carpet industry shipments. We find that the recent leveling-off of shipments is likely to persist. While housing recovery will aid the demand for carpeting, increases in income are likely to be offsetting, as the switch to alternative floor coverings will be ongoing.