基于突变理论的高校稳定状况动态模糊评价研究

从稳定状态到不稳定的过程是一个复杂并且包含有着大量的突发性非连续性变化过程，为了研究和发现导致学校稳定状况产生突变的因素，科学地评判并预警，本文结合突变理论，运用模糊隶属函数和突变级数，将突变理论与模糊分析结合起来，对与学生有关的学校稳定系统进行多层目标分解，再根据归一公式进行量化递归运算，最后得到学校稳定总突变隶属函数值，进而通过分析不同时期学校稳定总突变隶属函数值及其变化趋势，动态地对学校稳定状况进行模糊综合评判并通过实例进行了检验。

Dynamic fuzzy evaluation analysis of college stability based on catastrophe theory

The transformation from stability to instability is a complex process encompassing a lot of catastrophic and discontinuous changes. In order to discover and research the causes of the stability catastrophe on campus, make scientific evaluation, and provide warning, the thesis, based on catastrophe theory, employs fuzzy membership function and catastrophe progression, combines catastrophe theory with fuzzy analysis, makes a multi layered object interpretation of campus stability system related to students. Then, according to normalization formula, the project makes quantitative re eursion calculation, and obtains the ultimate catastrophe member function （UCMF）. Moreover, by analyzing the general catastrophe membership function （and its development tendency） of campus stability in different periods, it carries out a fuzzy comprehensive dynamic evaluation of cam pus stability and verifies the result with particular cases.