基于可流动性资产负债表的我国政府债务风险研究

政府资产是政府债务顺利偿还的基础,当政府资产低于其负债时,政府债务将面临一定风险,因此基于政府资产负债的视角,本文结合中国实际首先编制了一个简化的政府"可流动性资产"负债表,然后,分析了1998—2008年我国政府仅考虑直接债务时的政府债务风险,并且对2009—2010年的政府债务风险进行了分析。研究表明,2003—2006年因外汇储备急剧增长使我国政府债务风险总体较小且比较稳定,但因金融危机的爆发,我国政府债务风险在此期间前后的两次金融危机中都比较大,金融危机对政府债务风险的影响显著。研究还表明,积极的财政政策对短期降低政府债务风险具有明显效果,且1997年亚洲金融危机和2007年美国次贷危机对我国政府债务风险的影响具有相似性,即金融危机爆发后的几年内政府债务风险会因积极的财政政策而经历"大—小—大"的变化过程。最后,通过引入政府或有债务,分析了具有或有债务时的政府债务风险。本文认为,只要我国政府的或有债务规模不超过24万亿元人民币,则我国的政府债务风险较小。

Liquidity Assets Balance Sheet Based Government Debt Risk Research in China

Based on the balance sheet of government, this paper suggest that the government’s assets are the basic guarantees for ensuring the repayment of the government’s debts, so if a government’s assets are less than its liabilities, the government debt risk may occur. A simplified "liquidity assets" balance sheet of government is constructed firstly based on Chinese reality, and then by using of the balance sheet, the Chinese government directed debt risk between the years of 1998 to 2008 is analyzed while the risk between 2009—2010 is also forecasted as well. It shows that the risk between the years of 2003 to 2006 was relatively stable and not so high in general, but the risk in the years before or after such period was in a much higher level under the influence of the each financial crisis broke out around the world. It can be seen that the impact of financial crisis to government debt risk is significant. At the same time, this result also shows that the positive fiscal policy could availably reduce government debt risk in short-term, and the effect is similar of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2007 U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis on Chinese government debt risks, to other words government debt risk will have a trend of "big-small-big" owing to the positive fiscal policy within a few years after the outbreak of the financial crisis. Finally, by introducing the government contingent liabilities, the research provides that the Chinese fiscal won’t be safe unless the government contingent liabilities is no more than 24 trillion RMB by detecting the fiscal default risk under the government contingent liabilities.