中国服务业发展的驱动力：基于产业关联视角的实证检验——兼论“后金融危机”时代中国服务业发展的战略选择

服务业发展的驱动力决定服务业发展的质量和效率。本文基于产业关联视角实证检验了中国服务业发展的驱动力，结果发现中国服务业同农业和制造业的外部产业关联良性交互关系还没有很好的形成，这主要表现在中国制造业和农业发展对服务业发展的引致效果较微弱，而且制造业产出对服务业产出的引致呈现出均质性特征，特别是没有形成对生产性服务的大量引致性需求。因此，转变服务业的发展方式，提高生产性服务业同本土制造业和农业的产业关联程度，促进制造业和农业的产业升级，是“后金融危机”时代我国现代服务业发展的重要战略目标。

The Driving- Force of the Service Industrial Development in China: in the Perspective of Industrial Linkage and Also on the Strategies Choice of China's Service Industry Development During the Post -crisis Era

The Driving-Force of the Service Industrial Development determinates its quantity and efficiency.This paper empirically tests the driving-force of the service industrial development in China.This result shows that the mutual relations of external industrial linkages between services and manufacture or agriculture haven’t come into being in China,which are embodied in the weak inducing effects of China’ manufacture or agriculture on services and the homogeneity characteristics of manufacture output inducing service output,especially both not for much inducing demands for producer services.So,the external industrial linkage shocks to services can’t conduct the sound cycle of service industries development and structure change and it is the important strategies choice of China’s service industry development during the post-crisis era that increases the inter-linkages between the producer services and the manufacture and agriculture.