中国外汇储备规模与CPI波动动态关系实证研究

从二维视角出发,选取月度数据对中国外汇储备规模与CPI波动的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国外汇储备与CPI波动互为因果,且二者存在长期的协整关系;短期内,外汇储备对CPI波动存在正向的冲击效应,外汇储备和CPI波动关系的阶段特征呈现出与我国外汇体制变迁阶段相契合的规律性。为此,提出了削弱外汇储备对物价影响的政策建议。

An Empirical Research on the Dynamical Relationship between the Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves and CPI in China

This paper focuses on dynamical process and linkage between the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves and CPI with monthly data.The empirical results testify that there are reciprocal cause-and-effect and long-term cointegration relations between the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves and CPI.As for short term relations,it indicates that fluctuations in the scale of foreign exchange reserves make positive knock-on effects on CPI in China.Furthermore,it reveals the law that the relationship between the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves and CPI changes with the four phases in the innovative process of China’s foreign exchange regime.Finally,policy suggestions of weakening the relationship to improve the effectiveness of the monetary policy in China are proposed.