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Unemployment persistence |
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| Authors: | Arulampalam W; Booth AL; Taylor MP |
| Institution: | z (ne Narandranathan). Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK E-mail: wiji.arulampalam@warwick.ac.uk y University of Essex, UK CEPR w University of Essex, UK |
| Abstract: | We estimate dynamic panel data models of unemployment incidencefor men using the British Household Panel Survey. Econometricissues concerning unobserved individual heterogeneity, genuinestate dependence, and the initial conditions problems are addressedin detail. We find strong evidence of state dependence consistentwith the scarring theory of unemployment - an individual's previousunemployment experience has implications for his future labourmarket experience. This suggests that policies reducing shortrun employment incidence will have longer-run effects by reducingthe equilibrium or natural rate of unemployment. |
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