基于PLS模型的中国林业产值影响因素分析

利用1994～2007年关于中国林业投入与产出的相关数据,采用偏最小二乘回归法,对影响中国林业产出的诸种投入因素进行研究。实证研究发现:中国林业产出主要受林业固定资产投资、林业基本建设投资和林业从业人员人数以及从业人员年均工资等投入因素的影响;且各种投入影响因素对林业第一、二、三产业的影响程度存在差异。为此,建议:保持林业投入适度增长,加大对林业劳动力的教育和培训力度,增强其再就业能力;加强林业固定资产投资和林业基本建设投资,尤其是营林固定资产投资和森工基本建设投资;借助林权制度改革,多渠道拓宽就业途径,以促进林业劳动力向第三产业转移。

The Analysis of Factors Affecting Forestry Output of China Based on PLS Model

Using the statistical data about forestry input and out put during 1994-2007,this paper analyzes the relationship between input and output of forestry in china by the partial least squares regression method.The result shows that:the forestry output is mainly affected by the forestry fixed assets investment,the forestry capital construction investment,and the number of forestry workers,as well as the average annual wage and some other input factors.And there are some differences on the impact of various input factors among the forest I,II,III industry.It proposes suggestions as follows:the financial input for supporting forestry should be increased to train the forestry surplus labor and enhance its ability to re-employment;strengthen the forestry fixed assets investment and the forestry capital construction investment,especially in forest fixed assets investment and forest industry capital construction investment;broaden employment ways by Forest right system reform to promote the transfer of surplus labor in forestry,and improve efficiency and output of forestry.