产业结构升级对城市化推进的影响、效果与机制

产业结构升级是推进城市化的重要动力之一,本文结合引力模型和现有的文献基础,推导了产业结构升级对城市化影响的非线性关系。具体来说,把产业结构升级划分为产业结构合理化与产业结构高度化两方面,而把城市化划分为人口城市化与生产率城市化两方面。研究发现,产业结构高度化对人口城市化的影响以及产业结构合理化对生产率城市化的影响呈倒“U”型关系,而产业结构高度化对生产率城市化的影响表现为正“U”型关系,产业结构高度化对生产率城市化的影响不显著,并对其原因予以解释。同时,本文加入了市场机制与政府调控对其影响的直接效应与调节效应,发现产业结构高度化与产业结构合理化通过市场机制作用于人口城市化与生产率城市化的作用要强于通过政府调控机制作用于城市化的效果,同时,产业结构高度化比产业机构合理化通过市场机制与政府调控作用于人口城市化与生产率城市化的作用要强,并得出了相应的政策启示。

The Influence,Effect and Mechanism of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Urbanization

The upgrading of industrial structure is one of the important driving forces to promote urbanization.Based on gravity model and existing literature,this paper deduces the nonlinear relationship between the upgrading of industrial structure and urbanization.Specifically,the upgrading of industrial structure is divided into two aspects:rationalization of industrial structure and upgrading of industrial structure,while urbanization is divided into population urbanization and productivity urbanization.It is found that the influence of high industrial structure on population urbanization and rationalization of industrial structure on productivity urbanization is inverted U-shaped,while the influence of high industrial structure on productivity urbanization is positive U-shaped.The influence of high industrial structure on productivity urbanization is not significant,and the reasons are explained.At the same time,the study adds the direct and regulatory effects of market mechanism and government regulation,and finds that the effect of industrial structure upgrading and rationalization on population urbanization and productivity urbanization through market mechanism is stronger than that through government regulation.At the same time,the upgrading of industrial structure has a stronger effect on population urbanization and productivity urbanization than the rationalization of industrial institutions through market mechanism and government regulation,and obtains corresponding policy enlightenment.