居民杠杆率、阈值与经济增长

基于居民杠杆率快速上涨和"结构性去杠杆"的背景，运用全国2007~2017年相关数据建立门限回归模型和SVAR模型，分析居民杠杆率对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明：①居民消费、固定资产投资、居民杠杆率和非金融企业杠杆率对生产总值具有典型的门限影响特征，我国居民杠杆率阈值为0.31。②居民杠杆率低于阈值的时候，其自身和居民消费对经济增长有促进作用；高于阈值的时候，居民杠杆率和居民消费对经济的促进作用明显下降。③居民杠杆率低于阈值的时候，固定资产投资对经济的负作用不能通过显著性检验；高于阈值的时候，固定资产投资能有效地对经济增长发挥作用。④无论居民杠杆率如何取值，非金融企业杠杆率对经济增长都有显著的抑制作用。⑤居民杠杆率的增加有利于消费短期增长；从长期来看，经济增长反而会下降。原因在于债务压力的积累抑制了消费，随着消费的减少，非金融企业部门不得不缩减生产，被动去杠杆使得经济增长受到抑制。

Leverage Ratio,Threshold and Economic Growth of Residents

Based on the background of rapid rise of household leverage and "structural deleveraging", this paper establishes threshold regression model and SVAR model to analyze the impact of household leverage on economic growth using the relevant data from 2007 to 2017. The results show that:①residents' consumption, fixed asset investment, residents' leverage ratio and non-financial enterprises' leverage ratio have typical threshold effect on GDP, and the threshold value of residents' leverage ratio in China is 0.31; ②when residents' leverage ratio is lower than the threshold value, their own and residents' consumption can promote economic growth; when it is higher than the threshold value, the promoting effect decreased obviously. ③When the leverage ratio of residents is lower than the threshold, the negative effect of fixed asset investment on the economy cannot pass the significance test; when it is higher than the threshold, the fixed asset investment can effectively play a role in economic growth. ④No matter how to choose the leverage ratio of residents, the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth. ⑤In the long run, economic growth will decrease. The reason is that the accumulation of debt pressure has restrained consumption. With the decrease of consumption, the non-financial enterprise sector has to reduce production, and passive de leveraging has restrained economic growth.