入境旅游对国际贸易的门槛效应与国别差异——基于“一带一路”沿线41个对象国人均收入的实证

基于1998~2017年中国与"一带一路"沿线41个对象国的面板数据，运用扩展贸易引力模型，验证"一带一路"沿线41个对象国入境中国旅游对国际贸易的具体作用，进而以双门槛模型探究各国不同人均收入水平下，入境旅游对国际贸易作用的"非线性"变化和国别差异。研究发现：（1）41个对象国入境中国旅游对国际贸易存在正向作用。（2）入境旅游对出口贸易作用随人均收入增加不断下降，所有国家从逐利向消费阶段转变；对进口贸易作用随人均收入增长先升后降，10国处于作用较小且呈增长趋势的初始阶段，27国处于作用最大化的逐利阶段，4国处于作用最低的消费阶段。（3）相同人均收入区间内入境旅游对出口贸易作用大于进口贸易。与"一带一路"沿线国家开展旅游与贸易合作时，中国应准确把握入境旅游对国际贸易作用的国别差异，针对不同阶段制定应对策略。

The Threshold Effect and National Differences of Inbound Tourism on International Trade-An Empirical Study Based on the the Per Capita Income of 41 Countries Along the B&R

Based on the panel data of 41 countries from 1998 to 2017 along the B&R were selected to explore the effect of inbound tourism on international trade, by applying the expanded trade gravity model. Furthermore, the non-linear relationship and national differences of the effects are explored with the dual-threshold model under different per capita income levels. The study found that the inbound tourism of 41 countries along the B&R had a positive effect on the international trade. And with the increase of per capita income, the promotion effect of inbound tourism on export trade decreased and all countries are shifting from profit-seeking stage to consumption stage. The promotion effect on import trade increased first and then decreased. There are 10 countries are in the initial stage with a small and growing effect, 27 countries are in the profit-seeking stage with the maximum effect, and 4 countries are in the consumption stage with the minimum effect. Within the same per capita income range, inbound tourism plays a greater role in promoting export trade than import trade. The main reason is that China's international trade surplus is huge and the development of export trade is obviously faster than that of import trade.During this period, inbound business tourism, as the main form of FDI, also showed a trend of rapid growth. It was more closely related to export trade and played a greater role. When carrying out tourism and trade cooperation with countries along the B&R, China should accurately grasp the national differences in the effects of inbound tourism on international trade and formulate countermeasures for different stages.