中国贸易收支对汇率波动的敏感性分析——基于不同贸易模式的比较研究

本文在理论分析基础之上,通过构建计量模型,利用1994~2009年的季度数据,从实证角度比较分析了不同贸易模式下中国贸易收支对汇率波动敏感性的差异性,结果表明,其敏感性在产品内贸易模式下较之传统产业间和产业内贸易模式下更低。由于中国持续性贸易顺差正是中国融入产品内国际分工体系所致,所以人民币升值并不是解决中国贸易顺差的合理之道。本文研究同时发现,人民币汇率波动对内资企业冲击较之外资企业更大。据此本文认为,尽可能维持人民币汇率稳定,通过攀升产品内分工高端价值链、优化贸易结构、鼓励企业"走出去"等,对于缓解中国贸易顺差更为可行。

Sensitivity of China's Trade Balance on Exchange Rate Volatility:A Comparative Analysis based on Different Patterns of Trade

Based on the theoretical analysis,this paper establishes the econometric model to empirically analyze the difference of sensitivities of China′s trade balance on exchange rate volatility under different patterns of trade by utilizing quadratic data covering from 1994 to 2009.The results show that sensitivity of trade balance on exchange rate volatility under intra-product trade is weaker than that under traditional inter and intra industry trade.Since China′s huge sustaining trade surplus actually result from its involvement into international intra-product specialization,it is not feasible way to solve China′s trade surplus by appreciation of RMB,and what is more,appreciation of RMB will have badly negative impact on domestic enterprises than foreign owned enterprises.Accordingly,by stabilizing value of RMB,moving up to the higher end of the value chain under intra-product specialization,optimizing trade structure,and encouraging domestic enterprises "went global" are more feasible to solve China′s trade surplus issue.