利率水平、股票指数与资本的国际流动——理论模型与实证检验

传统的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型是以利率作为影响资本在国与国之间流动的主要因素甚至唯一因素为假定前提的,但这一假定具有越来越明显的局限性。在现代经济社会,金融资产的价格波动很多情况下成为影响资本国际流动的最主要因素。证券市场和房地产市场的价格走势又往往是与利率反方向变动的。本文据此论证了负斜率的BP曲线,从而拓展和丰富了蒙代尔-弗莱明模型的形态。然后以两组共计28个国家或地区的经济数据对其进行了实证检验。

Interest Rate,Stock Index and the International Capital Flow:An Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence

The original Mundell-Fleming Model assumes such a premise that the interest rate is the main or possibly sole impact of capital flows between countries,which is proved to have increasingly obvious limitations.In the modern economy,volatility in financial asset prices in many cases becomes the primary factor on the international capital movements.Prices of stock market and the real estate market constantly go in the opposite direction with the changes of interest rate.Accordingly,this paper demonstrates the ...