外商直接投资对中国收入贸易条件的影响分析

本文以能全面、准确反映贸易利益的收入贸易条件为着眼点,力图说明FDI对其影响。首先,利用回归方程测算出1985～2008年中国价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件的变动趋势,得出由于出口量的扩张,导致中国在价格贸易条件下降的同时,收入贸易条件却呈现逐年上升态势的结论;其次,以实证数据为基础,利用协整模型对收入贸易条件与FDI的相关性进行了实证检验,由此得出,长期内中国的收入贸易条件与FDI之间存在稳定的协整关系,FDI的增长正是中国收入贸易条件改善的格兰杰原因。

An Analysis of the Effect of FDI on China's Income Terms of Trade

The article focuses on Income Terms of Trade,which is a more accurate and comprehensive reflection of trade interest,and studies its relation with FDI.First,the article uses regression equations to estimates the changing trend(1985～2008) of China's NBTT and ITT,and finds that China's NBTT has decreased due to the expansion of export quantity,while its ITT kept increasing.Based on the empirical data,the article then applies co-integration model to analyze the correlation between China's ITT and FDI,finding that in the long run,a stable co-integration relation exists between China's ITT and FDI,furthermore,the increase in FDI is the Granger cause of the improvement of China's ITT.