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The revelation of information in strategic market games: A critique of rational expectations equilibrium
Institution:1. New York University, United States;2. Hoover Institution, United States;3. London Business School, United Kingdom;4. CEPR, United States;1. Universidad de Vigo, RGEA-ECOBAS, Spain;2. Universidad de Salamanca, IME, Spain;1. Department of Economics, University of Hamburg, Von-Melle-Park 5, 20146 Hamburg, Germany;2. Department of Economics, University of Paderborn, Warburger Straße 100, 33098 Paderborn, Germany;3. BiGSEM, Bielefeld University, Universitätsstraße 25, 33615 Bielefeld, Germany
Abstract:We criticize the R.E.E. approach to asymmetric information general equilibrium because it does not explain how information gets ‘into’ the prices. This leads to well-known paradoxes. We suggest a multiperiod game instead, where the flow of information into and out of prices is explicitly modeled. In our game Nash equilibria (N.E.) (1) generalize Walrasian equilibria to asymmetric information, (2) exist generically, (3) eliminate pure speculation, (4) allow prices to reveal information and markets to become more efficient over time, (5) are consistent with the weak efficient markets hypothesis that tracking past prices is not profitable, (6) yet always lead to higher utility for better informed agents (such as experts). Throughout the paper we use one concrete game. In the last section we prove that there is a broad range of games that would have the same properties.
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