The geographic distribution of unemployment rates in the U.S.: A spatial-time series analysis |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana;2. Auckland Clinical Studies, Grafton, Auckland, New Zealand;3. School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan;4. Center for Hepatitis C, Atlanta Medical Center, Atlanta, Georgia;5. Baylor College of Medicine, Baylor-St. Luke''s Medical Center, Houston, Texas;6. Service d’Hépatologie, Hôpital Saint-Antoine, APHP, UPMC Paris 6, Paris, France;7. Hospital Universitari Vall d''Hebron, and Ciberehd del Instituto Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain;8. University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada;9. Merck & Co, Inc, Kenilworth, New Jersey |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents estimates of the time series and spatial pattern of unemployment rate fluctuations in the U.S. over the period 1977.I–1983.IV. Spatial and time series autocorrelations over a regular lattice are estimated using both simultaneous (SAR) and conditional (CAR) autoregressive models of spatial series. The empirical results indicate that a temporary unemployment rate shock has a significant effect on unemployment rates in adjacent areas contemporaneously, but virtually no impact on neighboring unemployment rates after six quarters. A permanent change in an area's unemployment rate has a strong and persistent impact on unemployment rates in labor markets within 250 miles of the initial shock. |
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