我国大豆市场与国际一体化程度的发展及变化研究

文章通过测量我国大豆与国际市场的整合程度,分析改革开放进入深化阶段的20世纪90年代中期以来我国有关市场体制方面的变化对国内粮食市场对外开放及其运作效率的影响,尤其是加入世贸组织以后的变化。模型采用根据农产品贸易特点调整后的"状态转换模型"。研究表明农产品期货市场的建立与发展、进出口经营主体的多元化、加入世界贸易组织等带来的市场机制的改善对提高国内相关产品与国际市场的整合程度有显著影响,并发现中美大豆市场的关联度在世界其他主要出口国的收获季节后明显降低。

On the Openness of China's Grain Market:Evidence from Integration with International Soybean Market

This paper attempts to measure the market integration degree of Chinese soybean market with the international market, through which to investigate the general effect of market reform since mid-1990s on China's grain market efficiency. An extended regime-switching model is utilized to accommodate the distinct features in the agricultural trade. The findings indicate that the development of futures market, decentralization of exports and imports, and the entry to WTO remarkably improve the market integration. The link of China-US soybean market is also found becoming weaker during the US off-season.