Analyzing determinants of bond yield spreads with Bayesian Model Averaging |
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Authors: | Dominik Maltritz Alexander Molchanov |
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Affiliation: | 1. Faculty of Economics, Law and Social Sciences, University of Erfurt, Erfurt, Germany;2. School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand |
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Abstract: | This paper analyzes determinants of country default risk in emerging markets, reflected by sovereign yield spreads. The results reported so far in the literature are heterogeneous with respect to significant explanatory variables. This could indicate a high degree of uncertainty about the “true” regression model. We use Bayesian Model Averaging as the model selection method in order to find the variables which are most likely to determine credit risk. We document that total debt, history of recent default, currency depreciation, and growth rate of foreign currency reserves as well as market sentiments are the key drivers of yield spreads. |
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Keywords: | F34 G12 G15 |
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