“循序渐进”还是“平行推进”?——论体制转轨最优路径的理论与政策

本文认为目前在改革理论和政策研讨中颇为流行的“循序渐进”概念并不能确切地说明体制转轨过程中的各种问题 ,因为各种体制之间是相互依存、相互制约的 ,不可能改好了一个再改下一个 ,否则会出现体制“不协调成本”。文章提出了“平行推进”的概念 ,作为改革政策制定的基本思路 ,它可以说明为什么在体制转轨过程中 ,某些体制的改革“超前”和“滞后”(瓶颈 ) ,都是无效率的。在所有领域 (包括政治体制和社会政策 )都同时积极推进改革 ,同时考虑各种体制之间在转轨过程当中 (也就是在没有彻底完成改革之前 )的相互协调 ,应是体制改革的基本政策方法。

“Sequencing” or “Parallel Partial Progression”: Incoherence Cost and the Optimal Path of Institutional Transformation

The paper is trying to point out that the populous notion of “sequencing” as an approach to reform is inadequate to catch up the nature of the institution and institutional transformation, as the institutions or components of institution are interdependent. One moves too fast (over-shooting) or too slow (bottleneck) compared to other institutions in transition will cause “incoherence costs”. The realistic or more optimal approach is to push the reforms in all areas at the same time by similar “steps” (not the “sequencing”) with the consideration of coherences among the various institutions, i.e., the approach of “Parallel Partial Progression” (PPP).