人民币汇率制度综合改革路径及其对商业银行的影响研究

本文详细阐述了人民币汇率制度综合改革的思路、背景及具体路径，并提出综合改革是一项系统工程，即汇率形成机制改革是核心，外汇管理体制改革和外汇市场改革与建设是前提条件和市场基础，认为应在完善汇率形成机制的同时，加快外汇管理体制市场化进程，并大力培育境内外汇市场，最终建立以市场供求为基础，参考一篮子货币进行调节的有管理的浮动汇率制度。综合改革将对商业银行资产负债、汇率风险、国际化及其业务发展产生重要影响。商业银行必须转变经营理念、风险管理方式以及业务发展战略，以积极应对并把握人民币汇率制度综合改革的挑战和机遇。

Comprehensive Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Regime and Its Impact on Commercial Banks

The paper gives the guideline, background and concrete path for comprehensive reform of RMB exchange rate regime, a systemic project that centers around the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism under an improved foreign exchange market and foreign exchange administration system. It is believed that that while RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is being improved, efforts should be made to accelerate the marketization of foreign exchange administration system and the construction of domestic foreign exchange market with the intention of establishing a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand and adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies. Such a reform will produce enormous impact on commercial banks in terms of assets liabilities, exchange rate risk, internationalization process and business development. Therefore, commercial banks should change their operational concept, risk management mode and development strategy to meet proactively the ensuing challenges and opportunities.