基于模糊概率与贝叶斯博弈对信用证 结算风险的研究

信用证结算是我国国际贸易业务中普遍采用的结算方式之一。在国际贸易中,如何更加准确地对信用证结算的风险进行评估和决策,提高企业的风险承载能力,是专家学者们研究并试图解决的问题之一。本文针对国际贸易中进口方可能面对的欺诈风险,立足于不完全信息,将MKV风险测度、国家风险评级、FAHP风险综合评估方法相结合,对信用证风险进行模糊概率综合评估,并在此基础上采用了不完全信息贝叶斯博弈的决策方法,以帮助和指导我国出口企业进行科学决策。

On Risks of the L/C Settlement Based on the Fuzzy Probability and the Bayesian Game Theory

At present, letter of credit (L/C) settlement is one of the widely-adopted settlement methods for many Chinese enterprises in the international trade process. How to assess the L/C settlement risk with high accuracy, and to enhance the risk bearing ability of these enterprises, becomes an urgent problem. Based on the incomplete information, and combined with the MKV risk assessment method, the national risk rating method as well as the FAH comprehensive assessment method, this paper assesses the L/C settlement risk with high accuracy by means of fuzzy probability. The paper finds out a better decision-making method under the guidance of the Bayesian game theory, hoping to help Chinese enterprises make their international business decisions in a more scientific and reasonable manner.