湖南制造业出口竞争力提升及其对策——基于行业面板数据的实证

基于生产函数理论模型,理论构建了含出口变量及其滞后项的随机效应面板分布滞后模型,以探讨湖南制造业出口竞争力问题。实证结果表明,湖南制造业存在规模经济效应,出口的贡献率仅约为10.59%。出口及其滞后项变量、总资产、劳动力增加将推动制造业总产出水平扩张,出口变量的边际影响值之和为0.13;出口变动对制造业总产出水平波动的长期乘数效应值为1.15。出口对制造业产出水平的影响存在时滞效应,滞后阶数为2。为此,提出的对策:改变劳动密集型产业结构为资本密集型产业结构,增加资本、出口份额对湖南制造业经济效应影响。

The Research on Improvement of Export Competitiveness and Its Counter-measures of Manufacturing in Hunan Province-Based on Empirical of Iindustriai Panel Data

Basing on the production functinn theoretical model,this paper constructs the random effects panel model with export variable and its lag items,to study the problem of export competitiveness of manufacturing of Hunan province.The empirical results show that there are scale economic effects of mannufacturing in Hunan province,exports has contributed to scale economic effects about 10.59%.Export and its lag variables,total assets,labor improwe the output of manufacturing.The marginal effect of export is 0.13,export fluctuation has a long-term effect wilh 1.15 muhiplicr affect output fluctuations of manufaeturing.Export fluctuation has second-time lag effect. countermeasures：it is time to change labor-intensive to capital-intensive of manufacturing, increasing capital and export share to the effect of economic in manufacturing to improve export competitiveness of Hunan province.