Submarket Dynamics of Time to Sale

We argue that the rush to apply multiple regression estimation to time on the market (TOM) durations may have led to important details and idiosyncrasies in local housing market dynamics being overlooked. What is needed is a more careful examination of the fundamental properties of time to sale data. The approach promoted and presented here, therefore, is to provide an examination of housing sale dynamics using a step-by-step approach. We present three hypotheses about TOM: (i) there is nonmonotonic duration dependence in the hazard of sale, (ii) the hazard curve will vary both over time and across intra-urban areas providing evidence of the existence of submarkets and (iii) institutional idiosyncrasies can have a profound effect on the shape and position of the hazard curve. We apply life tables, kernel-smoothed hazard functions and likelihood ratio tests for homogeneity to a large Scottish data set to investigate these hypotheses. Our findings have important implications for TOM analysis.