人口城市化水平与耕地数量动态变化的协调分析——以宁夏沿黄城市带为例

目前我国正处于人口城市化快速发展时期,城市扩张用地和耕地资源数量之间关系日渐复杂。本文以宁夏沿黄城市带为例,在分析人口城市化发展进程与耕地数量动态变化的基础上,从城市化发展与耕地资源两系统之间的相互关系入手,运用协调度模型评价分析了自1990~2011年城市化进程与耕地资源数量动态变化的协调性,并对未来协调关系进行预测。结果表明:1990~2011年间二者关系在较协调、基本协调、调和和不协调状态之间波动,未来研究区要保持城市化水平与耕地数量的协调发展,耕地资源保护形势严峻。

Coordinated analysis on Dynamic Change between Demographic Urbanization and Quantity of Cultivated Land --A case study on Urban belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia

At present, China is in a period of rapid development of demographic urbanization, the relationship between urban sprawl and quantity of cultivated land resources increasingly complex. In this paper, urban belt along theYellow River in Ningrda, for example, on the basis of analysis of demographic urbanization process and the dynamic ehanges of the amount of cultivated land, from the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land resources of the two systems start using coordination degree model of self-evaluation and analysis 1990 ～2011 years urbanization and cultivated land resources dynamically changing coordination, and coordination between predict the future. The results show： 1990～2011 relations betweenethe two over the coordination, basic coordination, harmonization and fluetuate between uncoordinated state, the future of the study area to maintain the level of urbanization and the number of coordinated development of arable land, arable land resources protection grim.