石化行业中的经验曲线效应

经验曲线是美国著名波士顿咨询公司开拓的管理预测概念和工具之一，回顾经验曲线的起源及发展，总结了有关石化行业中的经验曲线效应现象，即：典型的大宗化工产品的固定成本的长期趋势存在明显的双倍斜率约为25％的经验曲线效应；同时单位固定资产投资也存在着双倍斜率为25％～63％的经验曲线效应。指出经验曲线是预测大宗化学品固定成本和投资长期趋势的一个有效实用的工具，并就国内应用经验曲线时应注意的问题及想法进行了探讨。

Experience Curves Effect In Petrochemical Industry

Experience curve is one of the concepts and tools for management forecasting, which was pioneered by the world-renowned Boston Consulting Company. This paper reviewed the origin and development of experience curves, summarized experience curves effect in petrochemical industry as the following; experience curves effect with a double slope of 25 % exists in the long term developing trend of fixed cost of typical bulk chemical products, and experience curves effect with a double slope of 25%- 63% exists in capital asserts investment. It was pointed that experience curve is an effective and practical tool for forecasting the fixed cost and long-term trend of investment for bulk chemical products. Problems claiming attention in application of experience curves effect for domestic companies were discussed as well.