京沪400km/h高速铁路列车竞争力影响探析

新时代人民对于美好生活的需要已经从单一趋向多元,铁路客运需求将呈现多样化、差异化和个性化,对铁路客运产品在速度、价格和服务质量等方面都提出更高的要求。以铁路大提速运输市场份额提升和高速铁路列车客运量增长为切入点,分析列车速度与市场份额、旅客运量之间的关系,剖析高速铁路列车市场竞争力影响,构建Logit离散数学模型。以京沪高速铁路为例,探讨400km/h高速铁路列车运量预测,研究提出400km/h高速铁路列车可以扩大客流吸引范围,增加铁路客运量,提升高速铁路旅客市场竞争力。

Competitiveness Analysis of 400 km/h High-Speed Train between Beijing and Shanghai

In the new era, people’s needs for a better life have been more diversified. The demand for railway passenger transportation is varied, differentiated and individualized, which puts forward higher requirements on the speed, price and service quality of railway passenger transportation products. Based on the increase of market share and passenger volume of highspeed trains, this paper analyzes the relationship between speed, market share and passenger volume, and the influence of market competitiveness for high-speed railway, and constructs Logit discrete mathematical model. Taking Beijing Shanghai high-speed railway as a study case, the writer discusses the prediction of traffic volume for 400 km/h high-speed railway, and puts forward the scope of passenger flow attraction that could be expanded for 400 km/h high-speed railway train, which can increase the passenger volume of railway and enhance the passengers market competitiveness of high-speed railway.