住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高，这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化，而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上，后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出，以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态，本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术，分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响，并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现，住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响，且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断，能够较好地反映市场转折点。

The Impacts of Housing Liquidity on Housing Price Index

Nowadays the instability of housing market in many Chinese cities has been strong, which is reflected not only in the rapid changes in housing prices but also in the dramatic fluctuation in housing transactions, a macro indicator of housing liquidity. The housing price index on basis of actual transaction prices may underestimate the volatility of housing market, thus in this paper a liquidity-corrected housing price index is introduced from MIT to solve such problem with impact of housing liquidity taken into consideration. Using micro data from a set of Chinese cities the paper tests the significance of housing liquidity when constructing housing price index. We find that liquidity-cotrected index is consistent with public expectation of market tendency and is a better indicator of market turning point （than housing price only）.