中国房价与地价的关系——基于相关分析和因果分析的实证研究

近年，中国房价持续迅猛上涨引发了不少讨论和争议，其中房价和地价的关系也是热点之一。本文以中国房地产为研究对象，借助SPSS16．0和Eview5．0，采用实证研究方法，对中国自1999年第一季度到2009年第四季度的房价和地价数据进行相关分析和格兰杰因果分析，揭示房价与地价的相关性和两者之间的协整关系，以及中国房价和地价在短期乃至长期相互影响的状况，为房价调控策略选择提供科学依据。

Study on the Relationship of House Price and Land Price in China--the empirical research based on correlation analysis and causal analysis

In recent years, The sustained rapidly rising house price caused many discussions and controversy in China, the relationship between house price and land price is one of the hotspots. This article takes China＇s real estate as research object, uses SPSS16.0 and gviewS. 0 to analyse the Chinese house price＇s and land price＇s datas that are from the first quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2009. Through the correlation analysis and causal analysis, the paper draws the conclusions that house price and land price have strong correlation besides their cointegration relationship, they have a mutual influence in short-term or long-term, which can provide scienctific basis for house price control-strategy.