应用改进重力模型法预测铁路行包OD运量的研究

对铁路行包OD运量的预测提出一种基于重力模型的改进方法。针对不完整的OD调查数据,运用综合阻抗的概念,首先在样本值的范围内进行模型标定,然后扩大样本值,运用标定好的重力模型重新预测并调整,最后得到完整的OD数据。实证结果表明,采用改进的重力模型比传统的重力模型预测结果更接近实际,可用于铁路行包运输OD运量预测。

Study on Applying Improved Gravity Model to Forecast the OD Freight Volume of Railway Luggage and Parcel

The paper puts forward an improved method on the basis of gravity model to forecast the OD freight volume of railway luggage and parcel transportation.Regarding the unperfected surveyed OD data,it employs comprehensive resistance concept to calibrate at first the model within the range of sample values and then extends the bound of the data.The calibrated gravity model is then reloaded to reforecast and adjust so as to obtain eventually a complete OD data.The practical result shows that the forecasted result under the improved gravity model is more close to the true result than that by the traditional gravity model and that it can be used in forecasting the OD freight volume of railway luggage and parcel transportation.