Foreign Transfers and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy

This paper investigates the role of the real exchange rate in determining the effects of foreign transfers. If capital is perfectly mobile between sectors, a pure transfer has no long-run impact on the real exchange rate. A decline in the traded sector occurs because the transfer, being denominated in traded output, substitutes for exports in financing imports. While a pure transfer causes short-run real exchange appreciation, this response is temporary and negligibly small. Transfers allocated to productivity enhancement do generate permanent real exchange rate adjustments in response to the sectoral reallocation of productive factors. The analysis, which employs extensive numerical simulations, emphasizes the tradeoffs between real exchange adjustments, long-run capital accumulation, and economic welfare, associated with alternative forms of transfers.

Stephen J. TurnovskyEmail: