被忽视的真实力量:旅游非正规就业及其拉动效应

文章以我国经济结构调整为背景,指出当GDP增长率降低到8%以下时我国面临着很大的就业压力。通过文献的梳理,文章说明了在此期间,发展旅游业是解决结构性失业最有效的途径之一。但是,目前的大部分研究都只是把注意力放在了旅游正规部门的就业及其拉动效应上,而忽视了旅游非正规部门的就业。文章详细回顾了国内学者对旅游就业乘数的估算以及他们的结果与WTTC(世界旅行和旅游理事会)之间的差别,回答了这些差别产生的原因,指出WTTC低估了2001年之后的旅游就业效应。在上述基础上,文章利用差值法计算了旅游非正规就业的总量及其结构拉动效应。研究发现,从非正规就业的部门结构角度看,旅游就业的拉动效应远远高于WTTC和国内学者此前计算的间接就业效应;在2011年,它吸纳了2040.40万人在该行业工作,乘数效应达到9.98。因此,在结构调整时期,政府部门应该更加重视旅游非正规部门对就业的功能性作用。

The Neglected True Power： Tourism Informal Employment and Its Pull Effects

There will exist great pressure for sustaining employment in China when GDP growth is under 8% in the context of the adjustment in economic structure which can cause social instability. How can this outcome be avoided？ In a review of the literature, this paper supposes that tourism development is one of the most effective ways for solving the problem of structural unemployment during this period of economic transition. However, most researches pay attention to employment in the formal tourism sector and its pull effects and neglect the informal employment of tourism. In fact, the informal sectors have absorbed a large number of laid-off workers and migrant workers since China＇ s reform and opening - up policies were launched which has been ignored and discriminated against by many Chinese local governments. In order to discover true power of informal sectors, the employment of the tourism informal sector was selected as a representative of the service industry. First, the paper presents many categories of informal employment of tourism showing the evidence of informal employment spreading over most industries. Second, the paper reveals the different tourism multipliers between domestic scholars and WTTC（Word Travel ＆ Tourism Council） reports and explains why the different multipliers come out, pointing out that WTTC underestimates the employment effects of tourism since 2001. Thirdly, based on the above analysis, the paper takes advantage of statistical data and re-estimates the population of informal employment in the nation. Fourthly, using the stable weights of employment in the service industry to total employment, the paper measures and calculates with different methods, the scale of informal employment of tourism and its structural pull effects which demonstrate that the tourism informal sectors supply 20.4 million jobs and its multiplier was 9.98 in 2011. Grounding on the research conclusion, we argue that the pull effects of informal employment of tourism is much bigger than that of indirect employment by domestic scholars and WTTC in terms of sector structure, which suggests that the government should attach much more importance to the informal tourism sector during the period of industrial restructuring in China. At the end of the paper, some suggestions for governments are put forward.