加工贸易贫困化增长的黑箱:对中国贸易条件不断恶化的一种试探性解释

中国30年改革开放取得的巨大成就很大程度上依赖于中国发挥比较优势参与国际经济。中国发挥比较优势战略的重要手段就是鼓励加工贸易发展,而加工贸易发展则引起巨额经常项目差额,通过影响世界相对供需及汇率来作用于贸易条件,带来了贫困化增长威胁。对于加工贸易发展导致贫困化增长的中间作用机制分析表明,只要实行劳动密集型比较优势战略就必然会引起一定条件下贸易条件的恶化。本文的主要贡献在于从理论上解释了加工贸易贫困化增长的黑箱,同时得到实证检验支持。

The Black Box of Processing Trade and Immiserizing Growth:A Probing Explanation for the Continuous deteriorating on Terms of Trade in China

To a great extent,Chinese continuous high-speed growth depends on the comparative advantage when participating in international economy,since the establishment of reform and open policy.One important realizing method on comparative advantage strategy is to incite the growth of processing trade,then large amount difference on current items will appear,affecting the terms of trade through comparative supply and demand in world market and exchange rate,making immiserizing growth to be possible.Based on a theoretical model of processing trade and immiserizing growth,this article illustrates that the establishment of labor intensive comparative advantage strategy will inevitably cause the deterioration on terms of trade in certain conditions.The main contribution of this article is to explain the mechanism between processing trade and immiserizing growth on theoretical aspect,which has been empirically supported by real data.