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Catching a draft: on the process of selecting quarterbacks in the National Football League amateur draft
Authors:David J. Berri  Rob Simmons
Affiliation:(1) Department of Economics and Finance, Southern Utah University, School of Business Building #318, 351 West University Boulevard, Cedar City, UT 84720, USA;(2) Department of Economics, The Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YX, UK
Abstract:The reverse order college draft gives the worst teams in the National Football League (NFL) the opportunity to hire the best amateur talent. For it to work effectively, teams must be able to identify the “best” talent. Our study of NFL quarterbacks highlights problems with the draft process. We find only a weak correlation between teams’ evaluations on draft day and subsequent quarterback performance in the NFL. Moreover, many of the factors that enhance a quarterback’s draft position are unrelated to future NFL performance. Our analysis highlights the difficulties in evaluating workers in the uncertain environment of professional sports.
Keywords:
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