西安旅游气候舒适度与客流量年内变化相关性分析

气候舒适度是影响旅游地开发的重要因素，直接影响到旅游季节的长短及客流量的年内变化。利用近30年气候资料，对西安及周边山地旅游气候舒适性进行了评价，划分了适宜性等级和时段分布；结合2000-2002年入境旅游、国内旅游和本地游憩客流量的年内变化，划分了旅游活动的淡旺季和月指数；在对气候舒适度与特殊因子数值化的基础上，采用OLS方法建立了客流量月指数与气候舒适度的相关性。结果显示：入境游客年内变化受气候影响，入境旅游月指数气候弹性系数3．44％；大雁塔和骊山国内旅游不仅受气候舒适性影响，还受“五一”和“十一”黄金周影响，客流量月指数气候弹性系数为2．06％和2．33％；太白山和楼观台本地居民游憩，还受4～5月春游、8月学生暑假和9月秋淋的影响，客流量月指数的气候弹性系数为2．99％和2、64％。本项研究为西安市及周边客流量预测和景区规划提供了科学依据。

An Analysis of Tourist Climate Comfortable Degree and Yearly Variation of Tourist Traffic in Xi''''an

Climate comfortable degree is an important factor that influences the development of tourist destinations.It directly affects the length of tourist season and yearly variation of tourist traffic.The paper,using climate data in the past thirty years,makes a comment on the tourist climate comfort in Xi'an and its surrounding mountainous areas and divides grades of fitness and periodic distribution.Combining inbound tourism,domestic tourism and yearly variation of local tourist traffic in the past three years,we divide slack season and peak season for tourist activities and monthly index.Based on climate comfortable degree and numerical value of fictitious factors,we adopt OLS method to establish the correlation of monthly index and related climate comfortable degree.The result shows:1.Yearly variation of inbound tourists is mainly affected by climate.Monthly index of climatic coefficient of elasticity is 3.44%.2.As for domestic tourism,Big Wild Goose Tower and LiShan Mountain are affected not only by climate comfortableness,but also by May Day and National Day "Golden Week".Monthly indexes of climatic coefficient of elasticity are 2.06% and 2.33%.3.As for local scenic spots,Mount Tabai and Mount Longuan are affected by spring outings in April and May,summer vacation in August and autumn rain in September.Monthly indexes of climatic coefficient of elasticity are 2.99% and 2.64%.This study provides scientific basis for the forecast of yearly variation of tourist traffic in Xi'an and its surrounding areas,for the development of tourism resources and planning of scenic spots.