基于随机误差分析的索洛模型改进及其在中国的实证分析

通过对索洛余值计算方式的改进,在原先定义的生产函数下增添了误差项,将得出后的技术进步率进行方差分析,并将产出、要素投入、技术进步以外的一些难以把握的因素,如制度的变动、宏观调控政策的变化的差异等用生产函数中一个偏差项来代替,使得中国技术进步的结果更贴近事实。并通过对索洛余值的实证分析,总结出近些年中国技术进步的发展特点及发展速度。

Solow Model Improvement Based on Random Error Analysis and Its Positive Analysis in China

This paper has improved the calculation way of the Solow Residual, adding the random errors under the production function that is originally defined and carrying on the variance analysis about the solved rate of the technological progress. It has used an error item of the production functions to replace the unconfirmed factors which are not belonging to the output, factor input and technological progress, such as the change of the system, differentiation of change in the macro-regulation policy and so on. Thus it can get the result of China's technological progress closer to the reality. It also obtains the development characteristics and the speed of China's technological progress in recent years through the positive analysis of Solow Residual.