适应人口数量和结构变动的刚性住房需求研究——以上海市为例

相对于影响住房供给和需求的其他因素，人口因素具有相对稳定型，因此从人口角度来分析住房市场是一个相当理想的视角。上海作为一个生育率超低水平的城市和快速移民的城市，人口年龄结构的变化也表现得尤其剧烈。准确把握上海的人口状况和结构变动，做好城市住房管理工作，维持稳定的住房价格，保证住房市场得到稳定健康发展，同时提高居民的居住福利，有序推动城市化过程，是上海发展面临的突出挑战。分析上海市户籍人口和常住人口不同的刚性住房需求变迁，得到外来常住流动人口的刚性住房需求将成为城市住房需求的主要动力。基于外来人口的特性，未来本市人口住房购买性刚性需求比例将降低，相应的以租赁等形式的刚性住房需求旺盛，且多以低档小户型住房需求为主。同时，外来常住流动人口中集体户人口增加，集体式公寓等住房类型的刚性需求相应增加。

Study on Rigid Housing Demand to Adapt to Quantity and Structure Changes of Population in Shanghai

Compared to other factors that affect housing supply and demand, the population is relatively stable, so from the perspective of the population to analyze the housing market is a fairly ideal viewing angle. Shanghai as a city of low levels of fertility and fast growing immigrant, population age structure was also rapid changes. Grasping the status and structure change of population accurately, doing a good job of housing management work, maintaining stable housing prices, ensuring that housing market is stable and healthy development, improving living welfare of resident, and promoting the process of urbanization orderly, those are the prominent challenges for Shanghai development. This paper analyzes the change of the rigid housing demand of the household register and permanent resident population, and gets the rigid housing demand of permanent resident migrants will become the main driving force of urban housing needs. Based on the characteristics of floating population, the purchase ratio of the rigid demand will reduce in the future, and leasing and other forms of rigid demand will be vigorous correspondingly, also being inclined to lowgrade small-based housing needs. At the same time, the collective household increase with permanent resident migrants entering, collective style apartments and other types of rigid housing demand also increase correspondingly