新贸易理论:证据再反思

产业内贸易常被作为支持“新贸易理论”的一个关键因素。然而本文从理论和实证两个方面对这一观察提出了若干质疑。建立在68个国家数据基础上的静态和动态计量模型结果显示,经济规模、消费者偏好、地理位置、贸易不均衡以及贸易环境(国家的经济开放程度)等因素,在短期和长期都对产业内贸易产生影响。这些发现促使“新贸易理论”重新去审视支持它的“证据”。

NEW TRADE THEORY REVISITED

The large volume of intra-industry trade is often cited as critical evidence favoring the new trade theory.This paper challenges this view from both theoretical and empirical analyses.Using trade data of 68 countries,we estimate both a static and a dynamic model and find that factors such as the size of an economy,consumer preferences,geography,trade imbalance and trade environment(openness of a country)all have impacts on intra-industry trade in both the short term and the long term.These findings beg the ...