| Abstract: | This article explores the use of risk analysis as a major feature of the corporate planning process operated by the British Railways Board (BRB). The risk-analysis procedures involve the use of fractile analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. They were first used in connection with the forecasts produced in the BRR's 1983 Corporate Plan and, more particularly, its Railways business clement which is known as the Rail Plan. This was the first time that the BRB had used risk analysis of this kind but, because of its success, the procedures discussed in this article arc now incorporated as a permanent feature of its corporate planning process. |
