The Stability of Judgmental Modelling: an Application in the Social Services

Judgmental modelling has been used on a wide variety of business problems, and with the advent of new technologies is becoming increasingly user friendly. The range of applications has helped develop understanding of managerial decision making processes, especially those related to group decision making. However, to date there has been little evidence of their use in the social services. This paper describes such an application among social workers in the United Kingdom.One of the difficulties facing social workers is deciding how to deal with individuals with mental disorders. The state has various legal procedures which can be brought into operation, ranging from no involvement with the individual through to compulsory hospitalisation. This study shows how a judgmental modelling approach was used to help define the decision variables. A group of experts from a particular social services department worked together on the problem, using a simple computer model to investigate its decision making criteria and the associated processes. The results are fully presented, and the implications for the role of social workers discussed.