效用理论在项目风险管理中的应用

本文分析了把期望价值 (EMV)作为评估并回应风险的工具的缺点。提出了一套基于股东主观效用 (效用函数 )的更恰当的方法 ,并使用这些方法去分析那些不正常的行为。这些分析包括“后悔”理论 ,并把这个概念拓展到对积极 (“满足”)成果的事后评论 ,同时也描述了“不满意”的价

Applying Utility Theory to Risk Management of Project

This paper analyzes the shortcomings of applying expected monetary value(EVM) as a tool for assessing risks and response options.It presents a more relevant set of measures based on the subjective view of stakeholders(the "utility function") and uses these to explain apparently illogical behaviors .The analysis includes the theory of "regret" and extends this concept to include positive ("rejoice") outcomes as well as after-the-event reviews, for which a "resentment" value is described. The challenge of managing project risk in line with stakeholder expectations requires balancing these three variables.