人民币汇率走势回顾与展望

2006年我国人民币汇率的显著特征为汇率弹性明显增强、双向波幅扩大、总体呈小幅升值态势.2007年人民币汇率政策取向是,在稳定汇率的前提下,从政策上弱化和消除人民币升值的非理性预期;其核心内容为:货币政策将突出汇率政策;采取合适的政策组合;适时调整汇率水平;发展和完善外汇市场.展望2007年,对人民币汇率的基本判断为:汇率浮动空间将会进一步放宽,人民币汇率在双向波动中小幅升值.

The Review and Expectation of RMB Exchange Rate

The distinctive traits of the RMB exchange rate in 2006 are as follows: the elasticity of the exchange rate was markedly strengthened,and the two-way floating band was expanded with RMB appreciated modestly.Under the premise that the exchange rate of RMB should remain stable in 2007,the target of our exchange rate policies is to discourage and remove the irrational anticipation of RMB appreciation.The major aspects of the target policies include having the exchange rate policies as the core of the monetary policies,adopting proper policies portfolios,adjusting exchange rate levels at the appropriate moment,and developing the foreign exchange market.On the whole,we estimate that the RMB floating band will be widened and the RMB will appreciate slightly during two-way fluctuation in 2007.