产业共性技术扩散三阶段模型构建与仿真研究

结合产业共性技术相关理论与技术扩散模型,以政府作用为调节变量,构建产业共性技术扩散的三阶段仿真模型,对产业共性技术扩散三阶段演化特征进行探讨,借助Matlab平台对主体采纳行为和共性技术扩散速度进行仿真,并以我国新能源汽车产业共性技术扩散为例对仿真结果进行实证检验。研究结果表明：产业共性技术扩散先后经历了权威决策、二次创新以及附随扩散3个阶段;产业共性技术扩散的企业采纳比例遵循“S”型曲线规律,而产业共性技术扩散速度出现了“上升-下降-再上升”的“N”型走势;直接采纳二次研发成果的企业,对产业共性技术扩散影响较大;政府在整个产业共性技术扩散过程中发挥关键作用,但在扩散不同阶段政府介入方式与程度会有所差异;二次创新投入比例与成功率影响产业共性技术扩散规模和速度;只有将产业共性技术转化成专有技术或新产品,才能实现共性技术有效扩散。

Three Stage Model Building and Simulation Research of Industrial Generic Technology Diffusion

Based on the theory of industrial generic technology and technology diffusion model, the three stage evolution simulation model of industrial generic technology diffusion was constructed by the government's role as the adjustment variable, then the paper analyses the evolution characteristics of the three stages of industrial generic technology diffusion under the condition of the government. The Matlab platform is used to simulate the subject adoption behavior and generic technology diffusion speed, and taking the diffusion of generic technology in China's new energy vehicle industry as an example, the simulation results are tested empirically. The results show that industrial generic technology diffusion has experienced decision authority, the second innovation, and attached diffusion three diffusion stage. The adoption ratio of industrial generic technology diffusion follows the "S" curve law, while the speed of industrial generic technology diffusion shows the "N" trend of "rising falling rising". Enterprises that directly adopt the results of secondary innovation have a greater impact on industrial generic technology diffusion. The government plays a key role in the process of technology diffusion, but at different stages of diffusion, the way and degree of government intervention will vary. The scale and speed of the industrial generic technology diffusion are affected by the ratio and success rate of the re innovation. Only the transformation of industrial generic technology into proprietary technology or new products can achieve the effective diffusion of common technology.