内生技术变迁视角下金融发展与产业结构升级

基于内生技术变迁视角，采用1985—2016年中国产业结构升级、金融发展、劳动力、技术创新相关数据，建立VAR模型进行脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解，并进一步构建VEC模型。结果表明：金融发展与产业结构升级具有长期均衡且显著为正的关系，同时产业结构升级和技术创新对金融发展扰动的响应具有滞后性。从长期看，金融发展对产业结构升级的贡献度超过劳动力。从短期看，金融发展与产业结构升级短期偏离修正系数较小，恢复均衡的速度较慢，且金融发展对产业结构升级的短期波动具有显著影响。

Financial Development and Industrial Structure Upgrading:the Perspective of Endogenous Technological Change

Based on the perspective of endogenous technological change, this paper uses data from 1985-2016 China's industrial structure upgrading, financial development, labor, and technological innovation to establish a VAR model for impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition, and further construct a VEC model. The conclusions of the study indicate that financial development and industrial structure upgrading have a long-term equilibrium and a significant positive relationship, while industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation have a lag in response to financial development disturbances. In the long run, the contribution of financial development to the upgrading of industrial structure will exceed the contribution of labor. In the short run, the short-term deviation of financial development and industrial structure upgrading is small, the recovery equilibrium is slow, and financial development has a significant impact on short-term fluctuations in industrial structure upgrading.