CAS视角下创新成功率与创新周期对两类创新模式的影响

创新模式选择有着复杂的内外部因素，现有研究缺少对核心因素与不同创新模式之间影响机理、影响结果的详细刻画。鉴于此，引入复杂适应系统理论，将影响因素集中于创新成功率和创新周期，抓住企业发展过程中生产销售、创新、贷款、还款等核心环节，建立基于主体的仿真模型。结果表明：①创新成功率对两类企业存活数量有正向影响，且对渐进式创新企业影响更显著，创新成功率与企业平均资金余额正相关，当突破式创新成功率超过渐进式创新成功率一半时，突破式创新企业平均资金余额大于渐进式创新企业平均资金余额；②创新周期与突破式创新企业存活数量、渐进式创新企业存活数量之间不存在明显关系，但与两类企业平均资金余额呈负相关；③创新成功率和创新周期对两类企业平均资金余额变化有正向协同作用，且该协同作用对突破式创新企业更显著。

Impacts of Successful Probability and Innovation Cycle on Two Innovation Models in the Complex Adaptive System Perspective

The selection on innovation models is affected by complex internal and external factors.More details about the interactions between factors and innovation models need to be studied.This paper analyzed the impacts of successful probability and innovation cycle on enterprise radical innovation and incremental innovation in perspective of Complex Adaptive System perspective.The results show that, Firstly, successful probability has a positive effect on the number of surviving enterprises, and it is more significant to the incremental innovation enterprises.Successful probability is positively related to the average capital of the two types of enterprises.When the radical innovation successful probability is equal to or higher than 1/2 probability of incremental innovation, the radical innovative enterprises average funds is higher than incremental innovation enterprises.Secondly, there is not obvious relationship between innovation cycle and the number of surviving enterprises, but there are obvious impacts on innovation average funds.Thirdly, the successful probability and innovation cycle have synergies effect on enterprises average funds.And it's more evidence on radical innovation.