| 萌芽期颠覆性技术识别研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄鲁成,蒋林杉,吴菲菲.萌芽期颠覆性技术识别研究[J].科技进步与对策,2019,36(1):10-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄鲁成 蒋林杉 吴菲菲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.北京工业大学 经济与管理学院；2.北京工业大学 北京现代制造业发展研究基地学术委员会，北京 100124 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大项目（17AGL009） |
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| 摘 要： | 从颠覆性技术成长周期入手，根据萌芽期颠覆性技术特点，采用基于创新性、独创性与功能分析的识别方法，在技术创新没有造成市场显著变化时实现预警决策。首先进行技术生命周期分析，随后利用创新性和独创性特点衡量技术颠覆性，排除渐进性技术干扰，最后运用功能分析方法研究技术新功能对未来市场的影响。以工业机器人专利技术领域进行实证，验证了方法的可行性和有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 颠覆性技术 萌芽期 早期技术识别 工业机器人 |
The Identification of Disruptive Technology on Emerging Stage |
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| Abstract: | Starting from the growth cycle of disruptive technology, based on the characteristics of disruptive technology on emerging stage, this article proposes an identification process towards novelty, uniqueness, function analysis, this method is helpful for the researchers to discover the disruptive technology before it caused great influence to the market.Firstly, discover the technology which is at emerging stage, secondly, identify potential disruptive technology through scientific and technological factors, incremental technologies are excluded; subsequently, apply functional analysis on the result, and discuss the influence of new technology function to the future market; finally, validity testament is organized using patent data in field of industrial robot, verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. |
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| Keywords: | Disruptive Technology Emerging Stage Early Technology Identification Industrial Robot |
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