青海湖生态环境演变与稳定性

根据长系列水文模型模拟结果,对青海湖的环境演变进行了分析,利用一阶周期性自回归模型对青海湖水位变化趋势及其对湖泊生态的影响进行了预测。结果表明:青海湖多年平均亏缺水量为3.31亿m3,近10 a来增温幅度较大时期的亏缺水量为5.19亿m3;保持青海湖生态稳定的关键物种为青海湖裸鲤,盐度是决定青海湖裸鲤繁殖和生长的关键环境要素,其阈值为16.8‰;考虑气候变化的影响时,青海湖水位在未来30 a会继续下降,水位阈值为3 190.25 m,2030年水位最低,为3 191.35 m,此后水位开始小幅度回升并逐渐趋稳;不考虑气候变化的影响时,预计未来30 a内青海湖水位仍会持续下降,之后下降趋势开始变缓并趋于稳定,2100年左右稳定在3 192.25 m;两种预测结果都没有下降到青海湖生态稳定的水位阈值,因此未来青海湖生态系统的稳定性不受影响。

Eco-environmental Evolution and Stability of Qinghai Lake

Based on the general analysis of long-series hydrological simulation,the key elements of ecological stability were analyzed,and the water level variation was predicted based on stochastic model.This study proposes that the average annual water shortage of Qinghai Lake is 331 million m3,and 519 million m3 in the past 10 years when the temperature range is compared larger.The Qinghai Lake Luoli carp is the key species for keeping the ecological stability,and salinity is the key environmental factor to influen...