我国农村居民收入增长来源的实证分析

长期以来,一方面,我国农村居民收入增长缓慢,而另一方面,国家支农政策不断出台,哺农力度持续加强。为解释这一现象,本文基于前期研究所构建的收入函数模型,对1985—2002年我国农村居民收入增长的来源进行了分解。结果表明:工业化是对农村居民收入增长贡献最大的因素;物质资本的高投入并没有带来收入的高增长;政府的政策效应正通过土地的产出增长显现出来;人力资本对农村居民收入增长的贡献率尽管位居第二,但其边际贡献率在所有要素中最高,并呈上升趋势,这意味着人力资本在不久的将来有可能成为对农村居民收入增长贡献最大的因素。

Empirical Study on Sources of Income Growth of Rural Residents of China

The income of rural residents has been increasing slowly for a long time,on the other hand,the government has put forth a series of polices on supporting agriculture and feedback agriculture. To explain this phenomenon, this paper decomposes the determinants of income growth of the rural residents from 1985 to 2002 by the income function. The results show that：the rural industrialization is the factor of which the comtribution to the income growth of rural residents is the greatest,and the higher input of physical capital does not generate the higher income growth;the policy effects of government have been emerging through the output growth of land, the marginal contribution ratio of education or human capital is the largest in all input factors despite its contribution rate to the income growth ranks the second,and its trend is rising, which means that the human capital will be the greatest contribution factor to the income growth of rural residents in China in the near future,