电力系统中长期负荷预测方法的研究与程序设计

文章探讨了电力系统负荷的组成、特点,在分析比较常用的预测方法优缺点的基础之上,采用了灰色预测法与回归法相结合的方法建立了中长期负荷预测模型,把负荷预测工作分为2个部分:即用灰色预测法进行相关因素的预测和用回归法进行负荷预测。该模型充分利用了灰色预测法要求负荷数据少、不考虑分布规律、不考虑变化趋势、运算方便、易于检验等优点及回归法能够考虑到负荷所受的多种因素的特点,模型参数估计技术比较成熟,预测过程简单。

Study and Program Design of Mid Long Term Load Forecast Method in Power System

The paper discusses the composition and features of the load of power system.Based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of some common prediction methods,the paper sets up a forecast model of mid long term forecast by combining grey prediction with regression method,that's to say,to divide load forecast into two parts,namely,the grey prediction is used to predict some relevant elements and the regression method for load forecast.The model makes full use of grey prediction which doesn't need l...