技术冲击和劳动供给对经济波动的影响分析--基于可分劳动RBC模型的实证检验

文章根据国内外经济波动的不同特征,构建了用于研究中国经济波动的可分劳动RBC模型,并对改革开放以来的中国经济进行了实证检验,从供给角度考察技术冲击对中国经济波动的影响,并在RBC模型框架下分析了技术进步对中国劳动市场的影响。研究发现,一是在固定劳动和可分劳动RBC模型中,技术冲击可以解释中国经济波动的主要部分;二是可分劳动RBC模型的实证结果表明,劳动供给变动对经济波动的影响较小,技术进步对改革后的产出、居民消费和就业都产生了正向冲击效应。技术进步对就业增长效应较小,致使我国的劳动需求增长率明显小于劳动供给增长率,劳动市场供需严重不平衡,这也是导致就业波动较为平缓、失业问题日趋严峻的一个重要原因。

An Analysis of Technology and Labor Supply Effect on China's Economic Fluctuation--An Empirical Study Based on a Divisible Labor RBC Model

On the basis of different characteristics in economic fluctuation between China and other countries,the author gives the idea of setting up a divisible RBC model for China's macro economy and makes a corresponding empirical test.Under the framework of RBC model,the impact of technology shocks on China's business cycle and labor market is analyzed.Then some conclusions are drawn: firstly,in both fixed labor and divisible labor RBC models,technology shocks can mainly explain the variance of China's cyclical fluctuation; secondly,the empirical results of divisible labor RBC model show that labor supply has little effect on China's economic fluctuation,technology improvement exerts a positive effect on output,private consumption and employment.Since the technology effect on employment growth is limited,the growth of labor demand rises obviously slower than that of labor supply and the unbalance in labor market is therefore severe.As a result,employment fluctuation is mild and unemployment becomes increasingly serious in China.